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采用动态TOPSIS模型、动态融合协调度和面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）系统分析粮食主产区农业科技与农业绿色发展的协同效应与交互关系。结果表明：农业科技年增速大于农业绿色的年增速。粮食主产区农业科技发展差异主要受技术基础影响，农业绿色发展差异则受到政策与技术的双重影响。粮食主产区农业科技与农业绿色的协调度呈现梯次推进的空间格局，黑龙江、山东、江苏三地率先进入深度融合阶段。从二者的动态关系来看，北部主产区表现为短期强效应，东部主产区呈现持续性效应，中南部主产区则呈倒“U型”特征。据此提出：建立多元化技术路径，破解生态转化瓶颈；实施动态标准升级机制，巩固创新生态系统韧性；构建区域转型补偿机制，降低协同摩擦成本政策建议。
Abstract：This paper focused on major grain-producing regions and systematically analyzed the synergistic effects and dynamic relationships between agricultural technology and agricultural green development based on panel data from 2006 to 2023,using the dynamic TOPSIS model,dynamic fusion coordination degree,and panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model. The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation indices of agricultural technology and agricultural green development in major grain-producing regions were on an upward trend,with the annual growth rate of agricultural technology exceeding that of agricultural green development due to the diffusion and spillover effects of technology. Spatial visualization results revealed that the regional synergistic effects between agricultural technology and agricultural green development had gradually strengthened,forming a spatially progressive pattern. Impulse response and variance decomposition results indicated significant dynamic relationships between agricultural technology and agricultural green development. In the northern regions,the positive impact of agricultural green development on technological advancement peaked rapidly in the short term but weakened over the long term. In the eastern regions,the synergistic effects between agricultural technology and green development could be sustained. In the central and southern regions,the impact of agricultural green development on agricultural technology shifted from negative to positive,peaking in the medium term. Based on these findings,this paper proposed policy recommendations,including optimizing regional coordinated development policies to reduce regional disparities,improving the policy system for agricultural green development,and promoting collaborative innovation between agricultural technology and green development.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:X322;F323
引用信息:
[1]袁世一,周涵,赵龙华.粮食主产区农业科技与农业绿色发展的协同效应与交互关系研究[J].资源开发与市场,2026,42(03):341-350.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:62103418); 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(编号:JBYW-AII-2024-30)
2026-01-13
2026-01-13
2026-01-13